The Jevons' paradox can potentially avoid reaching sustainability paths, even with the implementation of traditional policies in order to get it. This particular research field has been mainly carrying out studies since the 70s of the last century. In all these years of research and observation, we have learnt that several (although well-intended!) resources conservation strategies can ultimately increase its use, after multiple (millions of) large and small effects along the complex chain of behavioral responses of economic agents.
I've recently come across with this figure on the atmospheric CO2 concentration. They are undoubtedly growing, actually accelerating, despite all policies, international agreements and other kinds of efforts in climate change mitigation:
So what's wrong with conservation policies?
This question has a complex response, but has something to do, in part, with the Jevons' Paradox.
The ignorance about the final consequences of a specific action can lead to an undesirable effect. Social sciences -economy, sociology, social psychology, etc.- teach us that it is extremely hard, if not impossible, to know all the mechanisms and have the information needed to track every individual action till its final consequence. However, it is the responsibility of policy-makers to comprehensively assess the effects of a policy they want to implement. In many regions, environmental policies are still not assessed by social scientists. The clearest example are energy efficiency policies: there is a strong consensus amongst social scientists that every energy efficiency improvement generates some rebound effect. However, most of policy-makers who design and implement energy policies do not even know what the rebound effect is.
Beyond policies, many well-intended individual and collective actions can also lead to undesirable results, i.e. car sharing can increase number of travels with cars; changing consumption patterns can increase energy or other resources use in an unexpected way, through the consumption, production and distribution chain. These actions can still be good, as they change minds, culture and press the politicians towards putting environmental issues in their agendas, but governments need to take action in these cases where markets fail too.
So far, we have found two main ways to limit resources use: increase their cost or (better) set caps to their extraction and use. We do not know if there are other combinations and other potential policies, but by now, it looks keeping the fossil fuel reserves in the ground seems to be the best way to start tacking the climate crisis seriously.
Jaume Freire